Title I Technical Assistance Manual

3. The risk must be current, not one that is speculative or remote

The employer must show that there is a current risk -- "a high probability of substantial harm" -- to health or safety based on the individual's present ability to perform the essential functions of the job. A determination that an individual would pose a "direct threat" cannot be based on speculation about future risk. This includes speculation that an individual's disability may become more severe. An assessment of risk cannot be based on speculation that the individual will become unable to perform a job in the future, or that this individual may cause increased health insurance or workers compensation costs, or will have excessive absenteeism. (See Insurance, Chapter VII., and Workers' Compensation, Chapter IX.)